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Baer is Bearish on Bond Futures (1 viewing) (1) Guest
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TOPIC: Baer is Bearish on Bond Futures
#271
Baer is Bearish on Bond Futures 1 Year, 1 Month ago Karma: 1  
My technical indicators have given me a new Change In Trend indication for September bond futures. A change-in-trend is not to be confused with a new Sell Signal. At this time I suggest purchasing the September 113 put options.

My name is Larry Baer and I am a broker/analyst with Zaner Group, a futures brokerage firm. I can be reached at 888.281.4161 or at lbaer@zaner.com

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.
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Last Edit: 2009/08/07 09:31 By dstiltner. Reason: Updated subject line chart did not load proper.
 
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#275
Re:Baer is Bearish on Bond Futures (updated chart) 1 Year, 1 Month ago Karma: 0  
I understand the logic of the trade. But buying a September put that's barely 3 points out of the money with only 2 weeks of time remaining seems to be cutting it a bit close. The best hope for the traded to work is for unexpectedly bearish news for non-farm payrolls on Friday, August 7. It wouldn't be out of line to see the bond move 2 or 3 points just on that, but of course that's a crap shoot.

The September bond closed Wednesday at 116.03, and the 113 put closed at 31/64.

--Syggy
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Last Edit: 2009/08/06 06:12 By Syggy.
 
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#278
Re:Baer is Bearish on Bond Futures (updated chart) 1 Year, 1 Month ago Karma: 1  
Replying to "Syggy:"
If after two weeks we still like the position you could go buy the Oct 112 puts right now they cost $1400 and have 6 weeks to expire that's almost 5 times more if I am looking for these options to triple a 3 point move would do that a 3 point move in the Oct. options would not cause them to triple in two weeks. If we still like the trade but the
market has not moved our way yet we could go buy the 0ct 112 puts (probably would be under $1000). If you buy them now and decide the trade is not going to work you would taking a much bigger loss then $300. I think risking $300 on a trade that takes you through unemployment and FOMC meeting is prudent.
Thank you for your comment feel free to call if you have any other questions

Larry Baer
Toll-Free: 888-281-4161
Direct: 312-277-0112
email: lbaer@zaner.com
www.zaner.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.
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#284
Re:Baer is Bearish on Bond Futures 1 Year, 1 Month ago Karma: 1  
Good Job Larry on your bond Put reco. Hope to see more of you on are forum. If you get another hot trade call me and maybe we can try another featured article.

Donovon
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