A weaker market is what we started-out with today, with overnight Globex trade in the beans seeing profit-taking

3-11-10

GLOBAL COMMODITY ANALYTICS & CONSULTING LLC MID-DAY GRAIN UPDATE:

GOOD DAY EVERYBODY, HERE’S THE LATEST AT THE MERC AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID-DAY SESSION:

• A weaker market is what we started-out with today, with overnight Globex trade in the beans seeing profit-taking from Wednesday’s move higher being a leader to the downward bias today; we also saw very poor weekly export sales across the board this morning before the opening, which added-to the bearish tone. So, similar to last night’s trade, the beans led the declines on the opening.

• As we head into the early part of mid-day trade, beans have weakened further thanks to the fact that weekly exports came in with a negative; wetter northern Brazil weather for next week hasn’t yet been able to offset these negative export numbers. Corn and wheat are following, but the downside in the feed-grains has so far been limited, and I suspect that this will be a key feature to the trade as to how we close out the session—corn in particular also had weekly exports below trade estimates this morning, so if it can maintain just slightly lower trade as it is currently, we may actually see a better close then the trade may be currently expecting.

• Supporting the corn is a wetter forecast for the next 10 days, and some calls for a cold-air push coming after next weekend. We’ll see if the mid-day models support this forecast, and whether that can stem-off another strong day down. I’ll also be watching the Dollar trade and its impact on the wheat price action.

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The information above is not meant to be advice to buy or sell futures or options. Copyright, 2009 Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC